Drop Your Recession Indicators
There's a term that I don't remember seeing outside of the news until recently, which is "unofficial recession indicator." Behaviors and signs that a recession is looming or is perhaps already upon us.
A phrase that jumped from mainstream media to social media.
What I'm currently witnessing on social media, specifically Instagram and Threads, (Meta's version of Twitter) are people asking their followers to "Drop your unofficial recession indicators." The responses are fascinating! From dentists who no longer hand out free toothbrushes to women choosing to accept their natural hair color, it gets me thinking.
Am I noticing new recession indicators?
I certainly received fewer Christmas cards than in years past, although that might just be the natural and logical consequence of not sending our own. Plus our Goodwill parking lots are crammed full, which feels like an indicator.
There was a liquor store owner in a recent thread who wrote that more people were buying their booze with change and two-dollar bills, which he explained as "things people have been holding onto and are now breaking into." This stuck in my mind, as this is such a rare viewpoint, because very few of us actually own a liquor store!
I want to know if you're seeing "unofficial recession indictors," either from yourself or simple observation. Please share your responses in the comments section below.
I went to a relatively new thrift store in our area today. I bought a new sweatshirt for $3. When I checked I paid with a $20 and said I may have change to cover the tax.
However I was 2 cents short and he didn't care because he didn't have to count out change. He commented that a customer who was in yesterday paid with $2 dollar bills. There you go. I guess it's universal.
Maybe because the penny ending turned people's attention to cash, people are digging out their rare coins and bills and using them?
I sent Christmas cards and I also received less this year (9 less to be exact, I display them in rows of 3 on the wall so I could clearly see there were 3 fewer rows than usual!)
I actually just used up a bunch of $2 bills as well but more as a decluttering effort haha. My FIL used to always give them to my kids when he saw them, and they would then give them to me if they wanted to buy something at a store and pay me back. So I had a bunch of $2 bills in my wallet. I finally used them in a tip jar and the SPCA donation box.
I’m continuing to notice fewer of a particular item but for the same price; aka “shrinkflation”. Fewer cookies or crackers in the same package. Fewer pieces of protein/meat in a prepackaged meal (we divvy them up equally which is why we noticed). Smaller tubs of ice cream for the same price. Smaller servings at restaurants. Etc.
The immediate flood on FB marketplace of things people got for Christmas. Clothes, perfume, games, accessories. All brand new being sold for cash.
It feels like the number of shoppers are our closest traditional grocer, Giant Food, has decreased and the number of shoppers at Costco and Aldi has increased.
The stylist that cuts my hair (not frugal but I'm okay with that) said all last year that her business and that of her fellow stylists was down. The Baltimore region was impacted by federal government job cuts and the government shutdown.
My stylist just increased her prices by THIRTY PERCENT! In one go! I changed from a cut and style to just a wet cut. If her prices go up again, I’m going to the cosmetology school. My haircut is very simple.
I wear my hair short and there is a lot of layering and thinning/texturizing. My stylist pays to rent her chair in the salon two days a week. The rates have not increased in a long time so I tip generously. It is not frugal but supports my goal of supporting local workers.
My credit card company emails me after large purchases letting me know I am eligible to break the purchase into x number of payments. No thanks! They wrap it up as interest free, but they charge a fee for you to do it. (I read the fine print to figure out the angle.) I see this option on Amazon and even second hand sites like Posh. The dollar amount they offer to breakdown is ridiculously low amounts too. I really worry about people using it. They make that $100 item someone might hesitate on seem affordable. It reminds me of the mortgage companies who were giving loans to people who really couldn't afford it, then 2008 happened.
So many shopping sites offer monthly payments, even on smaller amounts. I have no idea if there is a cost involved but our rule is if you can't pay for it today you don't buy it today. I will use a credit card but only if we have money in the bank to pay the bill in full. I know it is a privilege. I know it is very easy for people to get sucked into spending more than they can afford.
It's called "Buy Now Pay Later". Typically consumers do not pay interest or fees, assuming they make their payments on time. It's funded by merchants paying higher fees on the transaction than they would for direct card payments. They are willing to do this because, as you say, it encourages people to make purchases they might not otherwise.
Young adults launching without enough family financial support have always done financially sketchy things to stay afloat and ensure bills are paid on time, and obscene rents are making it much harder. I was unusually frugal in my 20s but still used credit to buy the good shoes instead of the cheap ones.
I read that an indicator is to ask someone who works in waste management if the amount of picked up trash is decreasing. Waste management folks are the first to know because if there is less trash, that means folks are buying and wasting less.
I like cocoa mix. It used to be $2. It was $5 last week!!!!!
I never saw folks asking for money a decade ago. I seldom saw folks asking for money preCovid. I see folks asking for money in front of grocery stores regularly now. On the What’s Happening groups in local towns on Facebook the number of folks asking for food has increased significantly in the past year. These folks say they both work, but used paycheck to pay rent or electric and have run out right before payday of money to buy food. They are asking for food, not money. I also see single moms who say they don’t want money, just food.
We received only a few Christmas cards this year from friends and family, definitely less than we usually get.
We received zero cards from a business. Usually the insurance company sends one, and a few other places we have done business with. None this year.
One my tween daughter noticed - Kroger hasn't had sushi samples out for over a month. I didn't really notice, but my kid who always makes a beeline over there to get one definitely noticed.
I am part of a local mom facebook group that my middle kid refers to as "the fancy moms group". Conspicuous consumption is definitely the name of their game, and lately they've been asking to borrow items - posts to trade holiday dresses, and asking for good places to shop for gently used luxury clothing. (I am an outlier in this group, but my kids go to school in the fancy town they live in, and this is the only way I can keep up with what's going on in the community over there.)
My sister inherited a set of silverware some 10 years ago. She put it away and never used it. She even offered it to me at one point, but I did not think I would use it either. Earlier this week, she told me that the price of silver had increased so much she took it to a silver and gold dealer and sold it. I don’t think that high prices for silver foretell a recession the same way that high prices for gold do, but it struck me that something like that might be going on.
My brother, who is self employed, installs high end tech equipment in people's homes as well as businesses. He bought as much equipment as he could when the tariffs were on again, off again, on again which was hard on his finances. His business has since fallen far off as many of his usual customers are holding off or waiting out the current regime. He said his best years ever in business were from 2021 to 2024. Now he is facing bankruptcy. So yeah, "unofficial recession indicator".
I also got very few Christmas cards this year.
Today, I went to Goodwill and Walmart, and both stores were full of people. Of course, it's still a school holiday until Monday, so that may have something to do with it, as well.
The store where I work has a large perfume and fragrance section. I noticed some people returning unopened packages of cologne, etc., to get cash refunds. Some said Santa got the wrong thing. I'm wondering if, instead, the person might have needed the money more than the gift. (We only give cash refunds, or do exchanges -- we don't put it back on a credit/debit card.)
I don't drink alcohol, but I saw on the network TV news that a Jim Beam factory is closing for the year, due to far fewer people imbibing. Personally, I think that is a healthy sign. Is it the economy, or a bigger awareness of health issues surrounding alcohol, or both, that's causing this?
Since the tariffs and the disrespecting of Canada by your president, most Canadian provinces have banned the sale of American wine and spirits. That means billions of dollars in lost revenue for California wines and Kentucky distilleries. That is why Jim Beam is closing. As we say in Canada, Elbows Up and FAFO.
Oh how I wish I lived in Canada (preferably the warmest part, which there really isn't one). I am ashamed to be an American.
I believe the Jim Beam factory closing is also due to Canadians boycotting American products. Apparently it used to be a popular product up north.
It’s closing due to the tariffs the idiot in charge imposed.
The Associated Press has a good article about this:
https://apnews.com/article/jim-beam-bourbon-distillery-shutdown-kentucky-a8303cd04005a9108ff43690faad421b
Hi Fru-gal Lisa (and others),
I am in Kentucky. Jim Bean had plans to temporary close this (very aged) factory for equipment upgrades. This is a normal process in manufacturing. It has nothing to do with the economy or tariffs. Mainstream media just portrays it as such.
And I don't believe it for a minute it was "planned". It is no secret adults are cutting back on their drinking - be it health or budget reasons. Gen Z, economic reasons for some, are not into drinking. We've all seen the visual proof of Canadian store pulling all American whiskey/bourbon off the shelves as well as the signs to buy Canadian. I'm also not seeing any demand from overseas either. I have relatives in the area and I'm not hearing this from any of them.
Thank you! That’s what I had also read.
My husband has done multiple food/bev industry buildouts. Nobody gives up a year's production for upgrades. Nobody. They're not moving the volume to the Boston distillery or contracting it out. It's just not going to be made.
Beam's production had tripled in the past 10 years, but the tariffs have hit them hard. That's a fact and it tracks with their own statements and known market losses under this administration.
Fireworks are not legal here, but people set them off anyhow every holiday. Most years it sounds like warfare, but this time for New Year's Eve we heard only the official ones at an amusement park some miles away. I guess people can no longer afford to literally blow up money.
I didn't think of that until I saw your comment - we usually have someone in the neighborhood setting off some big fireworks on NYE, but it was quiet this year.
Interesting suggestion about the fireworks, Ruby. I noticed far less than the usual bombardment both this past 4th of July and at New Year's. (This is fine with me and Betty, and I imagine that it is with your family and pets as well.)
Same here- hadn’t thought about it until now but there were far less.
Same here--and since most fireworks are made in China, I suspect tariffs made them more expensive. I'm okay with that--fireworks are annoying and dangerous.
It always happens here after the 4th of July - people can’t pay their utility bills. There are always big tents selling fireworks. People buy those, then they don’t have money for their utilities. (I work for a city utility.)
Same here.
I have never in my life created or had a budget spreadsheet. My husband and I are working on one now.
What an interesting question! I have noticed an uptick in interest in thrift stores. The parking lot at Goodwill is always full. Have also noticed Goodwill prices going up.
Throughout the year I have seen more and more panhandlers.
I don't see as many books in the little free libraries, but weather may be affecting that.
The little free pantry is doing a brisk business. There is always someone there, and they're usually not dropping off food, but taking it.l
I chalked the decrease in Christmas cards to Thanksgiving falling late this year and leaving less time to get organized, but they are certainly not inexpensive either!
And postage feels very expensive to me, relatively speaking. I only sent cards to people who sent them to me - and to people who would really appreciate a card (with a handwritten note).
Just a few things...
I took 2 gifts back after Christmas that weren't quite right and got cash.
I am going through shutting off lights, even ones on in rooms that are occupied.
I bought groceries with a gift card meant to buy the Christmas ham. We made roasted chicken.
My husband and I both work for a small town’s utility department - we both notice when times are hard, people use two dollar bills and dollar coins to pay for things, probably money they have held back or received from grandparents that they had been hoping not to spend.
My husband does most of our shopping, and he notices that at the end of the month, there is more clearances food at the store, meaning people aren’t shopping as much.
At Fred Meyer, there’s usually a crowd in front of the clearance shelf. Sometimes I have to wait for the crowd to clear before I get a look. I used to be able to peruse the items in private. Yesterday, the clearance bread was almost entirely wiped out. The clearance meat is usually wiped out.
I got maybe 1/3 the usual number of holiday cards this year (and I’m someone who sends cards)!
I’ve observed more regular people gathering redeemable cans.
I notice more hot spots where I know I will find discarded beer cans in the mornings. These are spots where friends can gather and sit and drink a few beers from a convenience store. It is cheaper than going to a bar.
I barely found any change this year. I used to find change left in the change return on vending machines, and it didn’t happen once this year.
Speaking as an "irregular" person (i.e., someone who's been picking up deposit containers since NY State passed its first bottle bill in the early 1980s), I haven't noticed that much more competition in my wider neighborhood than usual. But I'll keep an eye peeled in the spring; right now, there's over 2 feet of snow on the ground, and no one's finding anything!
Here on my street, my neighbors know I'm "irregular," and some of them save their containers for me. I've always said that "normal" is just the second button from the left on the washing machine. 😛
Cans are worth 10 cents here, and I made around $250 from found cans last year, so I have no shame! I don’t reach into my neighbors’ recycling bins — that’s where I draw the line.
I don’t want to depict Portland as a hellscape, but my neighborhood has irregular folk who are in it for the fentanyl.
LOL - Heavy and whitest whites are the first two options on my machine. Normal is third.
I noticed what the clearance baskets at HEB are picked over where they used to be overflowing! I plan to stop in a few times a week before I go to work to see if I can catch some things before they are snatched up.
Silver prices are up 145% year-to-date, should remain strong thru January maybe even to March. One of my besties is a jeweler. Time to find those broken chains and 1 earrings.
My dentist still gives samples & brushes. Egg prices are down.
Milk and coffee has gone down.
J.P. Morgan says there is a 40% chance of a 3rd quarter recession. Economy is sluggish. We have seen it with fewer donations at the food pantry and we've been feeding on average 300 people at our Community kitchen every week.
I only sent out 4 cards, I received 4 professional cards and 3 personal. The auction yard always gives the regular attendees a whole specialty ham and this year it was a 1/2 ham. Still awesome.
First Saturday of the month at the bread store...$1 loaves.
I attend a free swap at the beginning of each December. This year the things that people donated were A) fewer in number and B) lower quality. It was noticeable. I think people are hanging onto stuff a bit more.
Trader Joe's cheapest eggs were $4.49/dozen a couple days before Christmas and $2.99/dozen now, just one week later. Price gouging??
Our local school district has lost so many student from families moving out of the area that almost 200 staff were laid off.
I thought of another one. Last time I bought a Costco rotisserie chicken, it was SMALL.
I have noticed that with the rotisserie chickens at Sam's Club. But they are still $4.98.
We live nowhere near a Costco. But I’ve discovered Walmart sells rotisserie chicken as well, for a dollar less than Costco and Sam’s, and same size as Sam’s.
Less of a discount percentage wise at after Christmas sales
Wait times for books/ebooks getting longer at the library
Crowds at any discount day anywhere (stores movie theaters)
OTT http://www.change.org has online petitions on a variety of topics. I sign a lot of petitions there to tryto small difference or at least my voice heard in the US. (I never donate $) I also use the free phone 5 calls to reach out to my US representatives to let them know I am paying attention and I remind them zi vote every single election. I also sign online petitions at http://www.EveryLibrary.org to support my right to read as an adult for free via tax dollars.
I see these more as 'Inflation indicators' than recession indicators - people aren't losing their jobs or their savings around here ( S California), but we're all feeling the pinch of inflation.
I heard an inflation-related behavior change reference recently, that certain applies to me- we're moving into an 'Appetizer Economy'. People still want to dine out, but are increasingly unwilling to pay the inflation-driven large increase in prices, entrees in particular, so they are ordering and sharing appetizers instead.
Tamara, I agree that a lot of the things described in this thread seem to me to be inflation rather than recession indicators. (But let's not split hairs here; this may be "a distinction without a difference," to quote a favorite phrase of my DH's.) And on the rare occasions when I eat out, I too have taken to ordering appetizers instead of an entree.
Agree on definite inflation indicators and the eat out but pick less expensive items.
I went out with neighbors this weekend and looked at the menu before going out. I found the fish sandwich with fries was 5 dollars less than the fish and chips plate with coleslaw. I got the fish sandwich with fries, water for a drink. After tax and tip I paid about $24 for myself to dine out. I brought home half the fish fillet and ate it the next day stretching it into two meals. I had considered getting an appetizer but didn't. Another woman at the table got a salad and water. She made a comment about the prices on the menu. It was still nice to get out.
I indulge myself annually and buy the December issues of holiday magazines (yes, I know the library has them, but I enjoy reading them at home with a cup of tea and ripping out a few recipes). I noticed that a number of them had included recipes for more basic, less expensive ingredients than I have seen in years past. I belong to a local FB group where people share tips about less expensive, under the radar restaurants. I’ve noticed a few recent mentions of 3 course moderately priced prix fixe meals. There was even a post yesterday about prix fixe meals at some of the restaurants in Atlantic City (about an hour away). I’m guessing that revenue is down there (if you can’t feed your family, you’re hopefully not looking to gamble).
We used some inflation fighting tactics to repurpose holiday entree leftovers, My free Cooking Light subscription yielded a recipe for an incredible beef stew that my husband made using leftover rib roast bought on super sale. I made black bean and ham soup after we got tired of eating leftover ham slices for dinner. DH also made chili after I found another screaming deal on ground beef. These efforts yielded a nice stash of frozen assets-about 14 meals for the 2 of us.
I volunteer with an organization that gives out microgrants of less than $75 for those in need. Each individual can only get one grant a year. We have seen an uptick in people trying to get multiple grants in one year, when previously we rarely had anyone trying to circumvent the rules. Our donations are also down, both cash donations and donations of clothing and food. I do not want to stereotype our neighbors that come to us for help, but it is hard not to notice from clothing, cars, and addresses, that those seeking our help these days are more often coming from past affluence and are not used to needing financial assistance, whereas in the past, most of those we helped had more experience with living in poverty.
The foodbank in my area was reporting increases in numbers of users again this year.
I often see people at food banks with brand new cars, new phones, hair and nails done...I know we shouldn't judge, but what someone spends in one category they look to make up with charity...seems like poor decision making on the front end
And so much is not known! Are these people newly in financial troubles? Did a friend or family member lend them a car for the trip to the food bank? Are they good at discount shopping for phones (not that I would know an expensive phone from another one) and clothing? Do they work in cosmetology or have a friend/family member who does their hair and nails or do they do it themselves?
I've certainly noticed the FB buy nothing group I'm in has anywhere from a handful to dozens of posts from moms and families asking for something to eat, even just to get through the day, every time I log on, which admittedly is infrequently but I was wanting to see if there were Christmas/winter pictures from a few family members so I've been on more in the last month than usual.
I've also seen so much shrinkflation that it makes me glad we rarely buy anything name brand and keep to the WinCo bulk bins- which are also busier than normal. My example is for my Christmas stocking I added a package of dairy free peanut butter chocolates to my Fred Meyer pickup, same as last year, and when I opened it it was TINY! I swear it was maybe 1/3 the weight and either about the same price or maybe $1 more than last year. Another for me is coffee. Coffee is so incredibly expensive now! Like it used to be $30 for a 5lb bag and is now +$52. I've also seen some strange brands that look like they fell off the back of a truck in places like Grocery Outlet, and even those aren't cheap.
I always maintain that I find less change when people are worried about money. Right now it’s too snowy to find anything, though!
Chocolate - so much more expensive than it used to be. I think about the cost when I bake as inputs ( butter, chocolate, vanilla and nuts) have increased quite a bit.
I have noticed that refrigerated salad dressings are smaller size and feel more expensive. Salad greens and fresh veggies/fruit are more expensive, often prohibitively, than before. Ice cream containers are smaller too.
Groceries definitely cost more, despite what the orange cheeto says. I find myself much more disciplined about minimizing food waste as a result.
The price of butter and chocolate is so high that it's been cheaper for me to buy cookies off the day old bakery rack than to make my own.
My recession indicator is how many more underconsumption tik tok videos are coming up for me and how many people I see shopping at dollar tree.
Our local hardware store just changed its return policy. They now require the original paper receipt whereas they would just look up your purchase in their system before. And they used to make a big deal of the ease of returns.
A lot of stores are now doing that to combat shop lifters who used to come back with something they stole, say the lost the receipt and collect the money.
But they can simply look up the receipt. They're making returns harder.
Well, my DH got his broken hip fixed on New Year's Day. Great way to start off the new year - NOT.
DSIL brought to the hospital stuff for me for a ham and cheese sandwich on New Year's Eve. I didn't eat it at the hospital. I got home and still wasn't hungry, so I put it in the fridge. Surgery was January 1, and there was actually enough meat and cheese for me for 2 sandwiches. Brought them to the hospital along with some drinks and some fruit salad DBIL brought for Christmas. Ate that during his surgery. Was too tired after a long day to get myself something for dinner, so I spent $7.50 at McDonald's on the way home. I also tipped the valet parking attendant $1.
We use a shared calendar program called TeamUp. Much easier for my not-tech-savvy DH to use. I added another subcalendar to track my spending. Shooting for at least 15 days/month (hopefully more) that the total for the day is ZERO. I am also noting what each purchase is for (not detailed, just generic; such as "McDonald's = $7.50, Valet Tip = $1.00, etc.) I didn't have anything at home to make a sandwich with today, so I stopped at the bagel shop and got a chicken salad with lettuce on a whole wheat bagel. Spent a little more than I would have liked; however, I ate one half for lunch and I will probably eat the other half for tonight's dinner or save it for tomorrow's lunch. Do have to stop at the grocery store on the way home tonight for a little cold meat and cheese to make sandwiches instead of buying them.
DH has to go to in-patient rehab after discharge. Will save a bundle on groceries - especially coffee. Might as well give that man a 12 cup caraffe and a straw. I have more than enough to make hot meals for myself at home, but nothing much in the way of a cold lunch I can pack. We're only 2 days post-op, but unless he progresses really well, I expect him to be in rehab for at least a month.
DSIL (that brought me the sandwich fixings) and her DD (my DN) did me a HUGE favor and took my DS for groceries and errands. Today was my day to do it; but my DSIL was kind enough to help me out.
I work for a manufacturer that supplies to automotive manufacturers and commercial vehicles (semi-trucks and trailers). Two indicators:
1. New car programs are being delayed and pushed out 1-2 years.
2. Trucking companies are prolonging the use of semi tractors and trailers. They are repairing instead of replacing.
Another recent indicator - I bought a new car. The dealership offered an option to make payments 2 times per month, instead of monthly. They offered 72 months of financing @ 7.5% interest. I declined both and opted for the 0% interest for 60 months. The dealership finance guy argued and said it isn't a good deal and it is a gimmick to get people in the door. Said he has NEVER had anyone take that deal over the 7.5%/72 month/twice a month payment........
He must have had a lot of customers who cannot do basic math. Been a long time since I paid anything but cash for a new vehicle (have never found used prices to be that good of a deal compared to new) but if I had to, I'd take 0% financing too.
I have been getting less and less cards the last few years.
Hubby's job got less Christmas food/baskets from their suppliers then they have in the past.
My favorite thrift store has been much busier.
Several big retailers have closed recently.
Oh I noticed one this year. We've been renting in an apartment complex for quite a few years and every year around Christmas our complex brings in a large dumpster (like the kind people use when doing demo on a house). And every year it's usually overflowing with trash from gift opening, boxes etc. Some years they have to bring in a second one to accommodate all the Christmas debris. This year it was barely full, I'd say 1/2-3/4 full, it was drastic, also didn't see any live trees thrown out and usually there are a lot.
Was there a shortage of live trees this year? Our grocery store didn't put any out, though they didn't sell too well last year.
My town's library is offering a class that will run once a week for three months on "cooking a meal with what you have on hand". I plan on taking the class because I figure there's always something new to learn.
Had it not been for the 5 dollar bill I found on the ground last February and stashed away with the coins I found throughout 2025, I would've found only $1.82, an all time low. I know people are using moe plastic and less cash plus I wonder if more people are now bothering to bend over and pick up that penny so there's less of it in the street, on the floor, etc.
I received fewer Christmas cards than usual, too.
I read in Garbology that garbage men are the first to be able to tell when a recession is coming. They make fewer full trucks to the landfill.
I read Garbology a few years ago. It was a fascinating read!
Part of the struggle is that I have to use my change SOMEWHERE -- our credit union no longer has a change machine, and I refuse to pay the extra fee to use the commercial ones. So it may look like I'm 'breakin' da piggy bank,' but I'm really just using up money I would normally have deposited in my account.
Plus -- the thrift shop I like best gives you a 5% discount if you pay cash. And they don't mind coins, either.
But you may well have a point. I've found very few coins in the exit hopper of the supermarket change machines in the past few months.
Part of the struggle is that I have to use my change SOMEWHERE -- our credit union no longer has a change machine, and I refuse to pay the extra fee to use the commercial ones. So it may look like I'm 'breakin' da piggy bank,' but I'm really just using up money I would normally have deposited in my account.
Plus -- the thrift shop I like best gives you a 5% discount if you pay cash. And they don't mind coins, either.
But you may well have a point. I've found very few coins in the exit hopper of the supermarket change machines in the past few months.
P.S. Could this possibly be that people who were lavish with their SNAP benefits now have to break out their own cash to buy items, instead? Just wondering - seems like this could have an effect, too.
I've not seen the words "lavish" and "SNAP benefits" in the same sentence before.
Me neither
I grew up in an economically disadvantaged community - we weren't on public assistance, but a lot of my school friends and neighbors were. My friends didn't have name brand food or anything else that would be considered lavish, anymore than we did. And people paying with food stamps in line were buying the basics and whatever was on sale to stretch it through the month. I don't know what part of the country people keep claiming that snap recipients are eating steak and lobster, but it sure wasn't my little PNW town.
I have not noticed more traffic at the GW in south Florida. I have noticed more worn out items for sale. I was looking for a pair of athletic shoes that are gently worn. No luck at the Restore shop or GW.
I have found approx. $20 dollars in change this year. That was roughly the amt. in 2024.
When I learn of people buying alcohol w/ change or $2 bills I think of alcoholism. Having worked w/ substance abuse patients, I think they would use any $ on hand to get their alcohol or drugs. I wonder if cigarette sales are down also.
I've been told a bunch of Portland dispensaries give out $2 bills. Taking those $2 to the liquor store next seems like more of a recession indicator than digging them out of your piggy bank.
A dog park friend told me that she had gotten a job as a grocery store manager as the professional musician jobs had been dwindling. I was thinking that a lot of the clearnace merchandise I have bought in years past that we use all year round like ziploc bags were not being discounted along with the rest of the leftovers.
I knew things were dire when my local Dollar Tree has price checkers *because there are so many prices besides a dollar (+ 0.25)*
I work in midtown Manhattan, the bastion of commercialism. When I started at this office almost 2 year ago every storefront was full or turning over with a new tenant. Now we have 5 empty storefronts on my 2 block walk from the train. Likely due in part to online commerce but also a shock to see.
My neighbors of many years, a realtor and a mortgage broker couple, did their own yardwork this summer, picked up their own dog poop and hung their holiday lights this winter.
I live an affluent-ish area (humble brag but we we got very lucky with the smallest house on the block and a 2% mortgage rate) and I've noticed that when home sales are low, they do their own work and in more lucrative years, they hire out. Yes, you can even hire a poop service!
I am writing this on Jan. 16, 2026, several days after this post first appeared. But I have a new indicator.
Today I was in the waiting room of a chiropractor's office. Another patient was there and we started visiting. She has run a successful food truck business for the past 7 or 8 years; her truck was even featured on local TV once. Now, she is having to sell it and find other employment. One of the reasons she is forced to sell: fewer people are eating out anymore. She can't make a living, it's so bad. She said customers tell her they love her country cooking chicken and waffles, but due to the high cost of everything, esp. health insurance, (but also housing, groceries and property taxes), they are having to cut back on all expenses. Even her most faithful "regulars" are eating at home all the time now. She also said she used to park her food truck at Magnolia Silos (Waco, TX), and once made a real good profit from the hungry out-of-towners, but says the tourist business there has also fallen off.
Oh, and another patient is also job hunting and told us companies just aren't hiring right now.
That's sad, but I get that people are spending less. I know that a local Mexican food truck here in Portland is suffering as their core customers are leaving home as little as possible due to Latino people fearing the ICE thugs. Could this be an issue there as well?